\n\nYou want to find empirical studies that show free trade to be harmful to free-trading nations? \u00c2\u00a0No problem; you can find them. \u00c2\u00a0You want to find empirical studies that show government stimulus spending to be a sure-cure for what ails a slumping economy? \u00c2\u00a0There are plenty of such data-rich studies out there. \u00c2\u00a0You want to find empirical studies that show that violent crimes aren\u00e2\u0080\u0099t deterred by the death penalty? \u00c2\u00a0Not a problem. \u00c2\u00a0You want to find empirical evidence that increased rates of handgun ownership increase citizens\u00e2\u0080\u0099 likelihood of dying of gunshot wounds? \u00c2\u00a0Many such studies are available.
\nYou can also find plenty of empirical studies showing the opposite of what is shown by all of the above studies. \u00c2\u00a0And these other studies are, as a group, no less carefully done than are the studies that they contradict. \u00c2\u00a0And these other studies, also, are done by scholars no less credentialed and no less objective than are those scholars who produce the contrary findings.
\nThat\u00e2\u0080\u0099s the reality of the social sciences. \u00c2\u00a0It\u00e2\u0080\u0099s not an exercise in simple observation of simple and self-defining facts, only one or two of which change at any time.
\nTherefore, theory is important. \u00c2\u00a0Among other roles, theory directs our attention to what patterns to look for, and helps us to better understand what empirical findings warrant our suspicion more than others. \u00c2\u00a0Obviously, theory should never be used as dogma to prevent our learning from careful empirical studies. \u00c2\u00a0Nor, however, should well-accepted and coherent theories be tossed aside simply because a handful of people produce a few studies that are inconsistent with that theory \u00e2\u0080\u0093 especially if other careful empirical studies support the theory.
\nSo while it\u00e2\u0080\u0099s always a good instinct to ask \u00e2\u0080\u009cWhat do the data say? \u00c2\u00a0What does history tell us about this matter?\u00e2\u0080\u009d, it\u00e2\u0080\u0099s just as scientifically naive to ridicule thoughtful discussion of theory (including discussion of pitfalls in interpreting data) by suggesting that the discussion is useless because it presents no data as it is to suggest that theory should never be subjected to empirical tests.
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via Where Are My Data?!.
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